Showing posts with label Ben Yalow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ben Yalow. Show all posts

Wednesday, 26 July 2023

解药:浓度百分之二十五 (The 25 per cent solution - Mandarin Translation)

 过去几年间,雨果奖某些奖项险些因未满章程规定的最低投票数而遭取消。

世界科幻大会已非上世纪六七十年代可比。
(图片来自 fanac.org)

令人感叹的是,这些濒危奖项的受欢迎程度并没有出现明显的滑坡。它们只不过是赶不上其他更具大众化影响力的奖项热度的快速增长。因此,说它们的境遇是最佳长篇小说、最佳戏剧表现等大牌奖项受捧带来的惩罚,似乎不为过。

雨果奖的的评选和颁发是由《世界科幻协会章程》约束的。这份章程的3.12.2款对某奖项空缺的的条件之一做出了规定如下。

3.12.2: 当特定类别的有效选票总数(不包括首先为“空白奖”投的选票)总数少于总数的百分之二十五(25%)时,既属“空白奖”。

2021年最终入围名单的总投票数为2362张。因此,如果某个奖项在终选时获得的总投票数少于591张,该奖项将公布为“空白奖”。最佳粉丝演播奖得到了632张选票,勉强超过了25%的下限。最佳粉丝杂志 (643), 最佳长篇作品编辑 (667), 以及最佳粉丝作者奖 (680) 都面临跌落“空白”深渊的境地。为了感受这些数字的含义,请考虑如下事实:在“25%条款”问世的1963年,任何一个奖项总投票数都没有超过591. 世界科幻大会在成长,它需要在会员群体愈发广大的条件下寻求有效衡量奖项代表性的途径。

我们还观察到一个值得注意的现象。如果仅仅多出来159名参加了最佳长篇小说评选、但同时未能为最佳粉丝杂志投票的会员,那么 Nerds of a Feather 就无法摘获名至实归的雨果奖了。这就体现了当前投票规则的一个漏洞:略微小众一点的奖项可能成为高规格大奖功名之下的牺牲品。

最佳长篇作品编辑奖的不二人选黛安娜·M·傅,
险些因3.12.2条款与奖项失之交臂。
(图片来自 Rokne & Wakaruk)

泛读一下该条款出现当年的一些同人杂志,我们可以看到如此的现状应该不是当时提出这项条款的本意。那时候,大家的牢骚是有的人可能靠着不到10张票获得雨果奖。如果某个奖项有多达500人参与投票,看起来不应该成为这种担心的对象。

章程3.12.2款的历史已经有些年头了,而且其发展历程也很有意思。因为1963年参加雨果奖投票的人数异常得少,随后1964年的章程里出现了这一条款的原始版本。当时的规定里并没有特定的下限,而是授权雨果奖管理会以“明显缺乏投票者的关注”为由取消某个奖项。

我们要明白,这条规则加入章程的年代,参与提名过程者不满200人,最终评选的投票人数不及300. 为20世纪60、70年代特定情况制定的投票规则,在2020年代的现实条件下未必仍适用。

因为文献不足之故,我们未能找到该规定的现行具体条文是什么时候制定的,不过范围就在1978、1979年间。就我们所知,这条规则的明确形式出自本·雅罗 (Ben Yalow) 之手。他提出将门槛定在25%,以增进评选过程的透明度,并确保奖项不会因为任何一届委员会随机的主观意念就遭剔除。

“雨果奖管理委员会有很大的自由量裁权,但他们宁可不动用。因为一旦出手,只能给科幻大会招来批评。”雅罗这样解释道。“所以,将规则制定得更具体,避免粗略的方针指引,可以让委员会从舆论的笔尖下脱身出来。”

在1970年代末,这是一项重要而积极的改进,25%的下限在当时是合理的。不过40年间时过境迁,这一限制也该改改了。

传奇人物本·雅罗是《世界科幻协会章程》
的重要贡献者,他起草了当前版本的3.12.2条款。
(图片来自 Rokne & Wakaruk)

整个1970年代,每年雨果奖终选投票人数平均约800人。这段时期,“空白奖”的下限可以估计为200票左右。如果某个奖项只能引来200票,那么认为它缺乏必要的关注度是可以理解的。

这条规则的另一时代背景是当年各个奖项投票数的分布比现在要均匀很多。1980年是雨果奖完整的投票记录有据可查的第一年。那一年,收到投票数最少的奖项是最佳粉丝作者奖。同样是那一年,在1788名投票者中有884人参与了最佳粉丝作者评选,因此该奖项的参与率有49%.

四十年过去了,参与最佳粉丝作者投票的人数没有显著变化,但参与的比例下降了,因为参加其他虚构作品类别的投票人数大幅增长。这就是说,导致类似奖项面临濒危的境地的原因,并不是关注的人数下滑,而是其他奖项的活跃程度增长。

说白了,最佳长篇作品编辑奖该不该评出,按道理不应该由最佳戏剧表现奖的参与人数来决定。

我们的建议是,与其使用百分数来判定某奖项缺乏关注,世界科幻协会应采用固定票数作为限定标准。当然,就和“25%条款”一样,这一票数下限的设置也会有一定的任意性。但我们认为,这个数字可以调节到能体现显著的粉丝群体持续性关注的水平上。显然,这个限度应高于10人。但同时,我们的观点是,假如在可以想见的将来,某届有3000人参加雨果奖投票的大会上按现有规则需要750票才能保住一个奖项,那么我们的固定票数限额不应该高到如此地步。这一具体数字应定期评估;每5年一次是比较可能的方案。

另一种解决方法是改变参与率低于25%的奖项的处理方式,要求世界科幻协会的雨果奖委员会对其进行重审而非自动取消,以防参与该奖项提名和评选过程的会员之劳动付诸东流。

雨果奖的部分奖项广为大众所知,这是值得欣喜的事情。不过,雨果奖的评选过程亟需与时俱进,既与大众的拥护相适应,同时又不至牺牲更小众的奖项。

当然,这些建议如果采纳,会给世界科幻协会雨果奖评委带来更多工作任务。然而,这样的工作有益于世界科幻大会使命的实现,并将帮助我们保证其程序真正建立在参与的基础上,体现出代表性和民主精神。

复言之:同人类奖项不应成为文学作品类奖项成功背后的牺牲品。

(注:原标题 The 25 per cent solution, 取自福尔摩斯系列作品之 The seven-per-cent solution. 英文中 solution 一词有“溶液”和“解”的双关涵义。)

本杂志编撰团队感谢雨果奖提名,并借此机会挑选了2022年度若干得意之作翻译成中文,以飨参加本年度世界科幻大会的中国友人。译者:Zoë C. Ma [https://zoe-translat.es/]

Tuesday, 22 March 2022

The 25 per cent solution

Over the past few years, several Hugo Award categories have come perilously close to falling off the edge of the ballot.
Worldcon has changed since
the 1960s and 1970s.
(Image via Fanac.org)

What’s striking is that these categories aren’t significantly declining in popularity, but rather, they’re just failing to keep pace with the growth of interest in categories with greater mass appeal. This makes them dangerously close to being punished for the popularity of the big-ticket Hugos such as Best Novel and Best Dramatic Presentation.

Section 3.12.2 of the WSFS Constitution – the document that governs Hugo Awards administration – described one of the circumstances under which an awards category should fail to be presented.

3.12.2: “No Award” shall be given whenever the total number of valid ballots cast for a specific category (excluding those cast for “No Award” in first place) is less than twenty-five per cent (25%) of the total number of final Award ballots received.

Since 2,362 final Award ballots were cast in 2021, if any category received fewer than 591 votes in the
Diana M. Pho was nearly denied her
well-deserved first Hugo for Best
Editor Long Form due to Section 3.12.2.
We are glad that she got it.
(Photo by Rokne & Wakaruk)

final count, then a result of “No Award” would have been declared. Fancast received 632 votes, barely scraping past that 25 per cent threshold. Fanzine (643 votes), Editor – Long Form (667 votes), and Fan Writer (680 votes) were all poised near the abyss. For context, consider that 591 is more votes than any category received in 1963 when this rule was first proposed. Worldcon is growing and needs a way to address category relevance that makes sense for a larger membership.

It’s interesting to note that if just 159 more people had cast ballots for Best Novel without voting for Best Fanzine, then Nerds of a Feather would not have taken home the Hugo Award they so richly deserve. This points out a flaw in the current rules: the slightly more niche categories might end up being punished for the success of the higher-profile award categories.

From a read of fanzines contemporaneous to the creation of this rule, it doesn’t appear that this was what was intended by the rule. At the time, people kvetched about the possibility of categories in which the Hugo winner received 10 or fewer votes. It does not appear that they were worried about categories in which more than 500 people were voting.

Section 3.12.2 has a long and interesting history, with the original version of the rule appearing in the 1964 Constitution, having been added in the wake of concerns over the remarkably small number of voters participating in the 1963 Hugo Awards process. At this time, there was no specific threshold, but rather the rules provided Hugo Administrators the ability to nix a category based on “a marked lack of interest in the category on the part of voters.”

It should be noted that this was added at a time when fewer than 200 people participated in the nominating process, and fewer than 300 people voted on the final ballot. Rules crafted for the circumstances of the 1960s and 1970s do not necessarily work in the context of the 2020s.

Because of missing documents, we cannot pin down exactly when the rule in its current form was codified, but it was either in 1978 or 1979. As far as we can tell, this clarification was based on the work of Ben Yalow. By adding a specific threshold of 25 per cent to the rule, his proposal helped bring clarity to the process, and ensured that categories weren’t dismissed on the whim of any given committee.

“Hugo Administrators have a lot of discretion, but really hate to use it since all it does is get the convention criticized,” Yalow explains. “So giving specific rules, rather than broad general guidelines, keeps administrators out of the line of fire.”
The legendary Ben Yalow, whose
contributions to the WSFS constitution
are innumerable, helped craft
Section 3.12.2 in its current form.
(Photo by Rokne & Wakaruk)

In the late 1970s, this was an important and positive change; and the 25 per cent threshold made sense at that time, but things have changed in 40 years, and this threshold needs to be revised.

Over the course of the 1970s, the Hugos had an average of 800 people voting on the final Hugo ballot; at the time the “no Award presentation” threshold could be assumed to be 200 votes or so. And if a category were to only garner 200 votes, one could understand that this might be a sign that there was a lack of interest.

This rule also comes from a time in which there was far more parity between the number of votes in various categories. In 1980 (the first year that we have full voting statistics on the Hugos for), the category which received the fewest votes was Best Fan Writer. In that year, 884 out of 1,788 Hugo voters voted for Fan Writer, giving that category a participation rate of 49 per cent.

Four decades later, the number of people voting in the Fan Writer category has not substantially changed, but the numbers voting in the prose fiction categories has drastically increased. Thus, the percentage of voters engaged with this category has decreased. This means that these Hugo Award categories are being endangered not due to declining interest in those categories when counted by number of voters, but rather by the enthusiasm and growth of other categories.

Fundamentally, the decision about whether or not the Best Editor - Long Form award is worth running should not be contingent on how many people voted in the Best Dramatic Presentation category.

We would suggest that instead of a percentage threshold to indicate a lack of interest in a category, the WSFS should consider a fixed numerical threshold. Of course, just like the 25 per cent threshold, this would be an arbitrary number, but we feel that it should be set at a level that reflects a continued interest by a significant number of fans; clearly that threshold is higher than 10 people, but we’d argue that it’s also fewer than the 750 people that it might take to pass 25 per cent of a 3,000-voter Hugos that is not inconceivable in the near future. This number should be reviewed, likely every five years or so.

An alternate approach would be to change the result of a sub-25-per-cent participation in a category to a mandatory review of the category by the Hugo Awards Committee of the WSFS, rather than invalidating the work of those who did nominate and participate in the process.

Some Hugo Awards categories have become more well-known in the broader public, which is a fact that should be celebrated. But the Hugo Awards process needs to evolve to adjust to this broader acclaim without penalizing more niche award categories.

While these suggestions create more work for the WSFS Hugo Awards Study Committee, it would be an effort spent serving the mission of Worldcon and help ensure a representative, democratic process based on participation.

To repeat: The fan categories should not be doomed by the success of the prose categories.